Because political risk shouldn't be a gamble.
Helping political analysts do their job with efficiency and accuracy.
Why Two Lanterns
Political risk used to be straightforward. Nationalization, expropriation, and civil wars were what mattered. We could hire a few consultants or subscribe to a publication and have it covered.
Now, the world is more diverse, more complicated, and the biggest events seem to come out of nowhere, perhaps with little time to consult with other. But how do you manage the volatility of politics while still handling the rest of your work and leaving the office by 5pm?
Two Lanterns was created to address this gap in the market - the political risk analysis that people are left to do on their own.
We have three main ways to help you:
The Political Risk Academy, an online course with live sessions to teach you a comprehensive methodology for practical political analysis.
Consulting projects, for when your needs are greater than what your own team can handle in a timely fashion or when you want coaching on building a team or addressing a particular situation.
Our newsletter, Inside Political Risk, serves as a resource for political analysts, with best practices, industry updates, and guest posts from others in the field.
Political Risk Academy
Political risk analysis is a skill in its own right, yet it is often only learned through years of experience or self-directed reading and experimenting. This is a problem if you want to quickly improve your analysis and to stay on top of the field.
We teaches political risk analysis to organizations in person and as an online course. Rather than relying on a single method or searching for a single answer, the Two Lanterns approach focuses on building a superior political risk process to deliver more reliable forecasts on a consistent basis.
This methodology is based on industry experience, academic literature, and constant research on current best practices.
Courses include seven hours of lectures in recorded videos, supplementary materials, and four live sessions. Everyone who completes the course will receive an invitation to the Political Risk Network office on Legislata and a 10% discount on any coaching or consulting products, up to $1,000 off.
For a customized workshop for your team, please get in touch to request a quote. Online courses are currently offered at an introductory price of $249 and you can sign up below.
In our course, we’ll teach you how to create your own bargaining forecasts for any political issue.
Political Risk Academy
$249.00
One time
Inside Political Risk
A newsletter with that serves as a community for political analysts. We share best practices, updates about the industry, and answer questions sent in from readers.
Consulting
Two Lanterns works for a variety of organizations in government, the private sector, the nonprofit world, and political campaigns. Below are some of our most popular services.
Team Training
Wish you could do more with the team you already have? Two Lanterns will teach your organization how to use the latest in political risk analysis. Our courses and simulations instill the best practices for navigating an uncertain global environment.
Team trainings are flexible and can be conducted on-site from one half-day to three full days. Trainings are best conducted in groups of 25 or fewer. Multiple engagements are eligible for bulk discounts.
Scenario Planning
The world is highly uncertain now. Our assumptions about what the world will be like in 5 years - or even 5 months - are shaky to the point of useless.
Luckily, scenario planning has been found to help in these situations. Based on the work of Shell, RAND, and the Intelligence Community, this approach encourages a blend of internal and external knowledge to stress-test plans and spark conversations within teams.
Scenarios can be built for industries, countries, or even the global order, from 2020 to 2050.
Risk Reports
Our risk reports are designed to be resilient to changes in the world. We specialize in long-term forecasting, blending big data and qualitative analsysis, and modelling influence and bargaining in uncertain situations based on our proprietary model.
Reports are designed to be both accurate and digestible. They employ data visualization, graphical elements, and concise writing to make a report you can actually read.
Monitor Construction
Political risk is not something that goes away after a report is completed. It is an ongoing concern that an organization will need to track week after week and month after month.
Two Lanterns' monitors help you track the questions that are most important to your organization. We work with your team to ensure that it is aligned with your needs and can be managed internally, if you wish.
Monitors can be as responsive as needed, to ensure that your organization is never caught flat-footed by whatever risks are coming from over the horizon.
Masterclasses
Designed for business schools, these sessions bring the best in political risk content and methods for students.
This is a one-day workshop, featuring an overview of political risk, lessons in best practices, and a simulation of a real-world event. We focus on bringing students up to speed on the world of political risk and give them the skills to succeed in it.
Masterclasses can be paired with an existing course or act as a standalone offering. Due to COVID-19 and the pressure on university budgets, these are being offered at steep discounts for 2020-2021.
Matrix Games
Militaries and business often use simulations or wargames to test strategies, build insights, and predict what might happen in a complex and uncertain situation.
Matrix games are a tool to bring apply this approach quickly, without the need of months of preparation. They are therefore perfect for the current environment, when a traditional wargame may be obsolete by the time it's played.
Matrix games can be deployed within a week of commission and take 3-5 hours to run. They are best suited to groups of 4-20 and can help build resiliency across all levels of an organization.
Who is Two Lanterns Advisory
Chris Oates
Two Lanterns was founded in 2018 by Chris Oates, PhD.
Chris had previously worked at Oxford Analytica, as the analyst for their Daily Brief subscription product covering North America, Australia, New Zealand, and NATO, and as an Advisory Associate, leading projects for the Department of Defense, European Parliament, and others. He has also worked in business intelligence, government consulting in Iraqi Kurdistan, and on political campaigns in Massachusetts.
Chris is a Lecturer at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University and Senior Advisor for Strategic Partnerships at Voter Choice 2020.
Chris has a PhD in International Relations from the University of Oxford and a BA with Honors and Magna Cum Laude from Brown University.
Advisory Board
Mac D’Alessandro
Mac is a partner at Democracy Partners in 2012 and formerly with the Service Employees International Union and Greater Boston Legal Services. During his career in politics, Mac has worked across the country, either on staff or as a consultant, for mayoral, congressional, and gubernatorial candidates.
In 2010, Mac was a candidate for United States Congress when he ran against an incumbent Democrat who was one of only 34 Democrats nationally to vote against the Affordable Care Act, the landmark national healthcare reform law.
Despite no name recognition, no cash-on-hand, and a mere five months before the Democratic primary, Mac managed to raise $350,000, secure several prominent endorsements, including the Boston Globe's, and garner 36% of the vote.
Mac is a graduate of Rutgers University and Boston College Law School.
Stephanie Hare
Steph is an independent researcher and broadcaster with a focus on technology and ethics.
She has previously worked at Accenture, Palantir, and Oxford Analytica. She is a regular on the BBC, both television and radio. She was one of the first political risk analysts to realize the seriousness of the Edward Snowden revelations, forecasting the “techlash” years before it became a buzzword.
Steph has an MSc and a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science, where she wrote on Maurice Papon, a French civil servant who was convicted of crimes against humanity.
Emily Fitzmaurice
Emily is a communications consultant with extensive experience in Democratic politics. She has served as Director of Communications for Senator Karen Spilka (currently Massachusetts Senate President), the Massachusetts Executive Office of Housing & Economic Development, and the Massachusetts Democratic Party.
She has also worked on ballot initiatives and Congressional and Presidential campaigns.
She has a BA and Double Major in Political Science and Communications from Fairfield University.
Sanford Henry
Sanford is Founder and Managing Director of Asset Solutions. He advises corporate clients and family offices on strategic investments, transatlantic trade, asset based lending, acquisitions, due diligence and fund management.
He is a partner of Global Resources Partnership, Strategic Thinker, Bosphorus Group, Senior Advisor to Dr.Schwarz-Schilling & Partners and MEC Consult (Middle East). He is member of The Pilgrims, Fellow at British American Business, member of the Conservative and Republican parties and American Citizens Abroad.
He has worked in over forty countries for international companies in senior positions, such as Edmond de Rothschild, Holiday Inn, Groupe L’Express, Ford Motor Company and as a journalist at WGBH. He has undergraduate and graduate degrees from Michigan State and Michigan. He is a Visiting Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, has mentored and lectured at Regent’s University and is writing a book on the history of transatlantic trade.
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